It's no secret that pick'em apps like PrizePicks are designed to give the house an edge. After all, they aren't in the business of losing money. But understanding the win percentage needed to break even on different types of parlays can help tilt the odds more in your favor. By knowing which play types are most profitable, you can make smarter choices and boost your chances of coming out ahead. Below, we break down the required win percentages for each play type, so you can identify the best opportunities for profit.

Most Profitable PrizePicks Parlay Types (Best to Worst)

5-Man Flex Plays

• Payout: Variable (Up to 10x for all five correct)
• Break-Even Win Percentage (All Five Correct): 54.25%
• Explanation: The math is more complicated for the flex plays, as you can win variable amounts depending on how many of your picks hit. What's important to know is that this type of play requires the lowest win percentage at 54.25% in order to break even. This means, you must be right on your picks at least 54.25% in order to break even and start to profit.

6-Man Flex Plays

• Payout: Variable (Up to 25x for all six correct)
• Break-Even Win Percentage (All Six Correct): 54.25%
• Explanation: Just like the 5 man flex play, the 6 man flex play also offers the most favorable win percentage. However, due to the fact that the 5 man requires one less player to do research on, the 5 man flex play might be a more convenient option.

4-Man Power Plays

• Payout: 10x
• Break-Even Win Percentage: 56.2%
• Explanation: Four man power plays require 4 props to hit for a 10x payout, so you would solve for x in x^4 > 1/10. This results in roughly 0.562, meanning you must correctly pick both players at least 56.2% of the time to cover your losses and start profiting. This is already better than both the 2 and 3 man plays.

4-Man Flex Plays

• Payout: Variable (Up to 2.25x for all 3 correct)
• Break-Even Win Percentage (All Five Correct): 56.89%
• Explanation: Again, the math is more complicated for flex plays, but while this break even percentange is more favorable than the 3 man flex play, it still isn't quite as good as the 5 and 6 man flex plays

2-Man Power Plays

• Payout: 3x
• Break-Even Win Percentage: 57.7%
• Explanation: Two man power plays require 2 props to hit for a 3x payout, so you would solve for x in x^2 > 1/3. This results in roughly 0.577, meanning you must correctly pick both players at least 57.7% of the time to cover your losses and start profiting.

3-Man Power Plays

• Payout: 5x
• Break-Even Win Percentage: 58.5%
• Explanation: Three man power plays require 3 props to hit for a 5x payout, so you would solve for x in x^3 > 1/5. This results in roughly 0.585, meanning you must correctly pick both players at least 58.5% of the time to cover your losses and start profiting. This is already worse than the 2 man power plays, so you should avoid these.

3-Man Flex Plays

• Payout: Variable (Up to 2.25x for all 3 correct)
• Break-Even Win Percentage (All Five Correct): 59.8%
• Explanation: The 3 man flex plays require the highest hit percentage of 59.8% out of any other plays.

Conclusion: 5 and 6-Man Flex Plays are Mathematically the Most Favorable

In summary, the 5 and 6-Man Flex Plays offer the most favorable break-even win percentages, making them mathematically the best options for bettors. However, while these plays might require a lower win percentage, they also involve more variables, meaning thorough research and strategic selection are crucial. To maximize your betting strategy, focus on plays that align with your strengths and offer the best combination of potential payout and realistic win percentage. 

Optimize Your Strategy with PickFinder

No matter your chosen strategy, picking the right players is crucial. Doing thorough research on all the available picks and players can help increase your win percentage and give you that silght edge. Utilizing an analytical tool such as PickFinder can streamline this research process by automatically importing the lines from apps such as PrizePicks and Underdog and allowing you to analyze each player's performance and figure out lines which are the the most likely to hit. With PickFinder, you can improve your chances of hitting those key percentages and turning a profit.